The expected value for this bet is therefore (1*0.5)+(-1*0.5), which becomes (0.5)+(-0.5), which becomes zero.Ī fair bet on the toss of a coin has zero expected value because, over the long term, i should win as many times as i lose and break even.īookies regularly have ‘To win the toss’ markets on sports where a coin toss determines which team starts with the ball. Each of these outcomes has a 50% chance of happening. How bookmakers make money video explainerįound this article useful? Why not check out our video that details how to find value.If I bet $1 on the toss of a coin, with fair odds, there are two potential outcomes. While low-margin bookmakers like Pinnacle have EVs of around -$0.20, it’s not uncommon for typical bookmakers to have an EV of -$1.00 – for every $10 stake you would be likely to lose a $1. It’s also a perfect measure for comparing odds in arbitrage betting, which is discussed in our article What is arbitrage betting.Ĭalculating the EV of bets gives bettors more information about the value of their bookmaker. If you calculate (maybe using a system like Poisson distribution) that Wigan has a 10% chance of winning, the EV for betting on a Wigan win jumps to $3.262. If you calculate your own probability for a match that differs from the implied probability of the odds, you could see where to find a positive EV, and therefore the best chance to win.įor example, the odds imply that Wigan only have a 7.4% chance of winning. Unlike a coin toss, sports betting odds are subjective, and therefore if you outsmart the bookmaker, you’re likely to make money. Remember, a negative EV doesn’t mean you’re going to lose money. How Does Expected Value for Sports Betting Help? The EV is negative for this bet, suggesting that you will lose an average of $0.20 for every $10 staked.

What does ev mean gambling